CBAM Impact Analysis
Do you know what CBAM will cost you – and how you can turn that cost into an advantage?
CBAM has been fully in force since January 2026. Importers of steel, aluminium, cement, fertilisers, hydrogen and electricity must report on this annually and purchase CBAM certificates corresponding to the CO2 emissions in their products. These certificates must be submitted for the first time in 2027. Those who don’t know how much this will cost are in for a surprise. Those who do can take action.
Our CBAM impact analysis will give you a clear picture of your exposure, the financial impact and the concrete first steps within 2 to 3 weeks.
Why act now – even if you’re already reporting
The transition phase is over, and the final obligations are now in force. The certificate price is linked to the EU ETS – currently €60 to €80 per tonne of CO2. This means, to give an example, anyone importing 1,000 tonnes of steel with an emission intensity of 2 tonnes of CO2 per tonne of steel faces an additional €140,000 in costs. These costs trickle down the entire supply chain: even if you don’t import yourself, you’ll feel the impact of CBAM in your purchase price.
What you risk by waiting
- Unexpected CBAM costs that affect your margin and cost price
- Suppliers who cannot provide reliable emissions data
- Lack of insight into which suppliers pose the highest risk
- Missed deductions on certificates, because suppliers cannot provide proof of carbon pricing in their home country, in spite of that cost having already been paid
- Higher CBAM costs as a result of having to fall back on conservative default values in the absence of supplier data
What is the CBAM impact analysis?
Following an (online) intake interview, we will assess your organisation’s current position within 2 to 3 weeks, and identify which actions deserve the highest priority.
- Scope and threshold check
Which products and materials fall under CBAM? Do you fall under the 50-tonne exemption; the cumulative threshold across all CBAM products combined? What is the proportion of your total imports? - Financial impact
What is the potential CBAM cost based on available emissions data or sector standards? At this stage, we do not carry out a full calculation of embedded emissions, but instead produce a rough cost estimate under various CO pricing scenarios. This estimate provides you with a basis for internal prioritisation and for communicating the expected financial impact. - Supplier risk
Which suppliers present the highest CBAM exposure? Who has already paid CO pricing that is eligible for deduction? An overview of countries with active carbon pricing mechanisms can be found on the World Bank’s Carbon Pricing Dashboard. - Data availability
Do you have the emissions data you need for reporting and certificate optimisation? We also assess whether you are prepared for the verification requirement: embedded emissions must be verified by an accredited third party. This represents a separate cost and a practical challenge that often takes companies by surprise. - Strategic options
Which sourcing and contract choices can structurally reduce your CBAM burden?
Following the analysis, you will receive a clear overview of your priorities, with concrete recommendations for the next six to twelve months.
Who is the impact analysis relevant for?
- Purchasing managers and supply chain managers who want to know where their CBAM exposure lies and which suppliers pose the highest risk.
- CFOs and finance directors who want to integrate CO costs into pricing models, quotes and budget planning.
- Board members of companies that import CBAM goods or that purchase from suppliers who do so.
What do you receive after the analysis?
- An overview of which products and materials fall under CBAM
- A scenario analysis of your potential financial CBAM impact
- A risk screening of your key suppliers
- Specific initial actions regarding data, procurement and contract management
- Recommendations tailored to your sector, import volume and internal context
Practical
- Duration: 2 to 3 weeks
- Approach: intake interview, document analysis, working session with internal stakeholders, written report
- Participants: 2 to 4 internal stakeholders (preferably from procurement and finance, as well as a member of senior management)
- Output: written report setting out priorities within the agreed timeframe